Thursday, March 6, 2008

Picking the 2008 NBA MVP is easy and unfair

The "MVP! MVP!" chants are loud and common. At various arenas peppered throughout the country, tens of thousands of fans are invested in the closest, most intriguing MVP race of this generation.

The headline of this MVP race is Kobe Bryant and LeBron James, the two best basketball players in the world putting on dominating performances in opposite conferences. The resurgence of the hallowed Celtics made Kevin Garnett the early season favorite. Chris Paul has commanded the embryonic Hornets to a top spot in the toughest West ever. And Tracy McGrady has thrust himself into the conversation by virtue of his team's historic 22 game winning streak.

The debate is heated, with opinions from all viewpoints boiling over on thousands of sports websites and tv shows. The debate, however, is a moot point. Looking at history it's easy to see what the NBA regular season MVP award has become and what it is not.

The NBA MVP award is not an "Outstanding Individual Performance" award. It's not an Oscar for the "Best Actor in a Lead Role." The NBA MVP award requirement is simple; it goes to the best player on the best team, assuming that player is having a career year. Let's look at the MVP award winners from the past 25 years:

2007 Dirk Nowitzki 67 Conference
2006 Steve Nash 54 Division
2005 Steve Nash 62 Conference
2004 Kevin Garnett 58 Conference
2003 Tim Duncan 60 Conference
2002 Tim Duncan 58 Division
2001 Allen Iverson 56 Conference
2000 Shaquille O'Neal 67 Conference
1999 Karl Malone 61 Conference
1998 Michael Jordan 62 Conference
1997 Karl Malone 64 Conference
1996 Michael Jordan 72 Conference
1995 David Robinson 62 Conference
1994 Hakeem Olajuwon 58 Division
1993 Charles Barkley 62 Conference
1992 Michael Jordan 67 Conference
1991 Michael Jordan 61 Conference
1990 Magic Johnson 63 Conference
1989 Magic Johnson 57 Conference
1988 Michael Jordan 50
1987 Magic Johnson 65 Conference
1986 Larry Bird 67 Conference
1985 Larry Bird 63 Conference
1984 Larry Bird 62 Conference
1983 Moses Malone 65 Conference

To win the MVP your team must almost always win the conference, but at least your division, and your team must win a ton of games. Generally in the high 50's, often times in the 60's. In fact, the MVP's team over the last 25 years has averaged 62 wins on the season. The lone exception was Michael Jordan in 1988 who didn't win his conference or division, but still had an outstanding year and won 50 games.

Per those requirements, it's easy to see who be this season's NBA MVP:

Tracy McGrady: The Rockets' streak is mind blowing and possibly the longest win streak you or I will see in our lifetimes. Their inspiring teamwork has them in a stratosphere occupied only by the Wilt Chamberlain and Jerry West led Lakers of 1972. Coach Rick Adelman should get serious Coach of the Year consideration and the Rockets deserve the "Best Teamwork" award, but T-Mac is actually having his quietest individual season since his Toronto days.

Bottom line: Great team record, not having a career year.

Kevin Garnett: Individual stats don't tell the whole story. Kevin Garnett's presence has transformed the Boston Celtic's like night to day. You could take a before and after picture of the Celtics that would be as stunning as any change on The Biggest Loser. In this case, Danny Ainge and the fans in Boston are the biggest winners, landing the Big Ticket and resurrecting the most storied franchise in basketball. However, he has elevated his team so high that for the first time in his career he doesn't have to do it all and that, ironically, is why he won't win MVP.

Bottom line: MVP-type team record, not having a career year.

LeBron James: He won't win it for the same reason Kobe couldn't win it the last two years; he is willing his undermanned team to victory with dominating performances night in and night out, but unfortunately his team's record isn't good enough. With his team sitting 7 games behind Orlando (and 11 games behind the division leading Pistons) the Cavs will end up as the fourth seed in a watered down east. And they would have to go 12-2 in their final 14 games just to reach 50 wins, yet the Cavs as a team don't even have a positive point differential.

LeBron is having the most impressive individual season in the NBA and should own the league for the next 12 years. Michael Jordan won 6 championships and 5 MVPs. I have no doubt that LeBron will do that same when all is said and done, with an even bigger marketing campaign.

Bottom line: MVP-type individual season, but the team record is not good enough.

Chris Paul: The Hornets are one of the biggest, most pleasant, surprises of the season. Chris Paul may be the most dynamic, effective player in the NBA. That may sound crazy, but have you seen him play? He absolutely controls the game with his masterful command of the ball, going where he wants and doing whatever he wants when he wants. And he has played better as the season has gone on, averaging 18 and 10 on 48% shooting (38% 3-pointers) in November to 26 and 14 on 59% shooting (48% 3-pointers) this month.

Playing the starting point guard on Team USA after his rookie year (to the high praise of his teammates) was just the beginning. The Hornets are for real. They're legit. They own a great home record, a great road record, and a great conference record. Oft times young players are likened to NBA legends prematurely and without merit, but in Paul's case, "Little Isiah" is right on the money.

Bottom line: Great team record, having a career year, deserving of MVP.

Kobe Bryant: Accepted as the best all around player in the game on both ends of the court, Kobe has been the NBA's best individual performer the last two seasons. Without going into theatrics about Kobe's career, superstardom, dark years, or the Lakers speedy rebuilding back to contention, I will cap this segment by reminding you that the MVP is not a fair award. Although it is meant to celebrate a single individual season, Kobe's career accomplishments will factor in. There is a large contingent of fans who believe he should have won the award at least once in the past two years but, even more so, there's a universal sentiment that the best player in the game needs to win the game's highest individual honor, at least once.

Bottom line: Great team record, great individual season, deserving of MVP.

Following the established pattern, the 2008 NBA MVP award will come down to Kobe or Chris Paul, and whoever ends up with the #1 seed in the West is deserving of that honor. However, Kobe gets the edge due to career and sentimental reasons.

Friday, February 29, 2008

Why these new Lakers are so darn lovable

Last night, Ronny Turiaf was jumping around, high fiving and chest bumping his teammates like the Lakers had just won the game.

But the game hadn't even started.

The players were just having fun with each other and the fans in Los Angeles are loving it.

Jeanie Buss was recently posed this thought: There's something about this team that is very likable. Laker fans are having a lot of fun particularly with this roster. Not to say anything negative about those championship teams of the early 2000's, but it just seems to be more enjoyable than even those Shaq/Kobe teams.

Apparently Jeanie is part of that Lakers crowd. "I agree with them and I can't put my finger on it either," she echoed, "I just love this team. I don't know what it is but they're just lovable."

Looking up and down the roster it's easy to find endearing about each player.

Lamar and Pau are both talented, multi dimensional players who haven't been able to carry teams on their own but are finally in the perfect positions to flourish as complimentary players.

Sasha's on court passion borders on hilarity. His teammates teased him about a particularly warm embrace he gave to Pau Gasol during the Phoenix game, when cradled himself into Pau's bosom like a young child. His boy band appearance, over exaggerated expressions whenever a foul is called on him, and unexpected eastern European accent add to the charm.

Farmar's local and thriving. He's becoming the steady floor leader that Fisher was on our championship teams. And the fans love Fish. They 0.4 bucket, the charge taking, and his baby daughter's eye cancer story is heart warming.

Ronny's endless energy, Caribbean vibe, and big toothy smile make him Mark Madsen version 2.0, with better dancing and actual basketball playing skill. His impressive comeback from life saving open heart surgery makes him the most lovable Laker of all.

Speaking of survival stories, Coby Karl's bout and victory over cancer, coupled with him going undrafted has made him another feel good story. His little boy haircut makes him the team's little brother, and Lakers fans are rooting for him to make it in this league. They chant his name whenever he appears on the floor, despite very limited minutes. Those aren't KO-BE chants, they're CO-BY chants.

The fans don't chant Kobe's name. They chant MVP. Bryant is still a polarizing figure, but his youthful cockiness has been replaced with deserved respect even among cynics. Fans are excited for him to finally with his first MVP, a necessary milestone in a remarkable career.

Fans are watching Andrew Bynum's development with arrested fascination, although his big baby face reminds us that he's still a boy. In fact, this team's inexperience and youth is why we love them. The 2000-2002 teams were stacked with crafty veterans, but it's a different feeling watching players who have never done it before try for the first time.

We also love the quick turnaround. It was just four years ago that Shaq was dealt and now we're already back up top, right where the Lakers should be, no matter the generation. Lakers fans embrace the new look Lakers like Sasha embraces, well, everyone.

Kobe loves Mitch Kupchak, after publicly throwing him under the bus. The city of Los Angeles loves Jerry Buss, after publicly doubting his decision making. The players love each other, despite a training camp saturated with uncertainty. And Lakers fans, who have been spoiled by great team throughout the years, love their team, perhaps more than ever.

Wednesday, February 27, 2008

How the Gasol trade saved the Lakers' season


Last season, the Lakers got off to a surprisingly hot start, going 26-13 to establish themselves as a top four team in the West and darkhorse championship contender.

Then the wheels fell off.

Half the roster went down with lengthy injuries and the Lakers scraped their way into the playoffs, a beat up vehicle that was quickly beatdown by the superior Phoenix Suns.

The Lakers, mired in a dreary rebuilding project, had regressed. Kobe was booed. Mitch Kupchak was hated. Phil Jackson wasn't signing an extension. The franchise was on the verge of trading away it's last remaining remaining superstar.

Fast forward.

The Lakers are sitting atop the most stacked Western Conference in the history of the NBA. At 40-17 they have their best record since 2002, their last championship year. They are the favorites, in a conference loaded with nine teams winning more than 60% of their games, to win the championship.

The New Look Lakers are deeper than the Spurs and Mavs, have a better starting five than Detroit and Phoenix, a better big three than Boston, and the league's best player and best coach.

Injuries have slammed the Lakers once again, but the same doom that destroyed the team last season was quickly vanquished when Mitch Kupchak stole Pau Gasol from the salary cap shedding Grizzlies. Andrew Bynum is out and Kobe's pinky is hanging on by a tendon that doesn't exist anymore. But the Lakers are playing with a dominating team effort behind their new big man who runs the offense on the interior as efficiently as Bryant does on the perimeter.

Kobe has refused the recommended surgery, sensing that this team has a very real possibility of winning the championship right now. He'll gladly wear his fourth championship ring on his thumb this summer while his pinky recovers.

Gasol is a dream fit in the Phil Jackson's triangle. An intelligent big man who can catch, pass, and shoot. Pau is the anti-Kwame Brown. He fit's in flawlessly with the rest of the Lakers front line, leaving room for Andrew Bynum to operate in the paint by playing skillfully on the elbows. Odom handles the ball like a guard and will play on the perimeter. The biggest front line in the history of the NBA, with Bynum at 7-1, Gasol at 7-0, and Odom at 6-11, is also a meticulous blend of big man with complimentary skill sets.

Last year in February the Lakers went 5-7 and started March with a 7 game losing streak. This February they are 12-1, so good that after the Clippers were trumped by the Lakers, Coach Mike Dunleavy conceded if "you look at their schedule, you don't see them losing any more games." The next night the Lakers blew out the Sonics, and coach P.J. Carlisemo agreed; "It looks like this team's not gonna to lose a game the rest of the year."

Most important, the Gasol trade re-instilled faith. Kobe's faith in his teammates, in management, and even in deity, jubilantly proclaiming "There is a God! There is a God!" after Pau's first game with the Lakers, a 24 point (10-15 shooting), 12 rebound, 4 assist sign of things to come.

The Pau heist wasn't the first great move that Kupchak has made. He's drafted smartly from the late first round and second round, bringing in Vujacic, Turiaf, Farmar, and Walton. His one move that didn't stick (Brian Cook) was turned into Trevor Ariza, an athletic defender/slasher that we've been craving off the bench.

And the best move of all was not submitting to his superstar, or the majority of fans, or a knee-jerk reaction, and keeping Andrew Bynum, who is the future of the franchise and the franchise center for the next 15 years.

The city of Los Angeles cried when Shaq was traded for spare parts, but those parts have become Lamar Odom, Gasol (Caron Butler became Kwame Brown who became Pau), Farmar (draft pick from the trade) and Bynum (the Laker's lottery pick from their stinky post-Shaq season).

Dr. Buss made the correct decision. Yes, Shaq won a championship for Miami, but now we have a deep, solid, young team instead of a cap killing 36 year old $20 million role player.

Kobe will most likely be the league MVP this season. His team is on the inside track to the Finals where he'll be the Finals MVP. And he can do it several times over the next five years.

Yes Kobe, there is a wise, all-seeing man, taking care over you. His name is Mitch Kupchak, and he deserves your thanks for saving the Lakers season and giving you the opportunity of your career.